Strategic Modelling and Design of Value Chain Systems under Uncertainty

Value chain systems bring together multiple actors, technologies, flows and investment decisions. Their development depends on uncertain demand, costs, regulation and technology, but also on how different actors respond to one another over time.

This project looks at how such systems form and remain viable when decisions are distributed across several actors rather than controlled by a single decision-maker. It uses modelling and simulation to study how investment, participation, timing and coordination shape both individual outcomes and the performance of the wider system.

The research also considers how different system architectures, development pathways and coordination arrangements perform under uncertainty. Initial applications are in the automotive sector, with support from Jaguar Land Rover.