How we engineer for uncertainty
Large-scale engineering systems are committed to for decades, in conditions that cannot be forecast with confidence. Our method treats that uncertainty as a design variable, not an afterthought.
The four-step summary on our home page — model uncertainty, analyse risk, optimise design, support decisions — sits on top of a more detailed set of principles we apply consistently across our research and project work, from lunar resource value-chains to transport and energy infrastructure. This page sets those principles out in full.
Seven principles
Every project we take on, from lunar in-situ resource utilisation to transport and energy infrastructure, applies the same underlying method — focused on decision quality under uncertainty.
Frame the decision
We begin by defining the decision itself: its objectives, the stakeholders it affects, and the criteria against which success will be judged, before any modelling work starts.
Model uncertainty explicitly
Rather than relying on a single forecast, we represent the ranges and drivers that could plausibly shape long-horizon outcomes, and identify which uncertainties actually matter to the decision at hand.
Map the wider system
Engineering decisions rarely stand alone. We connect technical architecture to operations, economics, and stakeholder interests, so a design choice is evaluated in its full context, not in isolation.
Design for change over time
We distinguish what should be fixed at the outset from what can be staged, deferred, or built with the capacity to adapt as conditions become clearer.
Explore the space of possibilities
Using simulation ensembles and structured scenario analysis, we compare credible alternatives across many futures rather than optimising for one assumed outcome.
Quantify the value of flexibility
Where a design can adapt, we use real options analysis to determine whether that adaptability is worth its cost — turning flexibility from an intuition into a number decision-makers can act on.
Balance risk and reward
We bring stakeholders' differing priorities into a shared, transparent view of trade-offs, supporting recommendations and next steps that are defensible under scrutiny.