Space Resources Value-Chain Business Modelling

Europe is entering a decisive phase in lunar exploration. Sustainable human and robotic presence beyond Earth orbit will depend not only on technological capability but on viable economic models. In-Situ Resource Utilisation — producing water, oxygen, propellant, and construction materials directly from lunar resources — can reduce logistics costs, increase mission resilience, and lay the foundations of a broader cislunar economy.

While the technical feasibility of ISRU has been studied extensively, its economic viability remains uncertain. Lunar missions face high capital intensity, uncertain demand, evolving policy, and long development timelines. This programme develops an integrated financial and business modelling tool that quantifies cost, revenue, risk, and value creation across the ISRU value-chain — producing cash-flow projections, break-even points, and investment indicators such as NPV, IRR, and ROI, alongside scenario and sensitivity analysis.

The approach treats uncertainty, scenario exploration, and strategic flexibility as primary design variables rather than add-ons — giving ESA and the wider European ecosystem a transparent, reproducible capability to guide phased investment and de-risk future programmes.

• Quantitatively evaluate the economic feasibility of ISRU-enabled lunar value-chains across varying technical and market assumptions.
• Compare alternative deployment strategies and infrastructure architectures over long time horizons.
• Assess risk exposure and identify key economic drivers through structured sensitivity and scenario analysis.
• Support strategic planning, phased investment decisions, and policy formulation consistent with ESA's exploration goals.

The activity is structured into four tasks that carry the tool from definition through to validated application.

1. Task 1

   Framework definition

   Consolidate user and system requirements and define the modelling framework with ESA.

2. Task 2

   Data & validation

   Collect, document, and validate the datasets and assumptions underpinning the model.

3. Task 3

   Tool development

   Implement and verify a modular, scalable modelling architecture with traceable outputs.

4. Task 4

   Business cases

   Apply the tool to representative business cases, generating actionable insight.

Requirements are consolidated by how ESA will use the tool and by the evidence provided at each review. Five capability domains structure the work.

Value-chain representation

End-to-end modelling of assets, logistics, deployment sequences, operations, and revenue — comparing ISRU-enabled architectures against terrestrial supply alternatives.

Financial engine

Auditable cash-flow projections, break-even analysis, and NPV / IRR / ROI, traceable to inputs with transparent treatment of discounting, phasing, pricing, and utilisation.

Decision analytics

Structured scenario and sensitivity analysis over 10–30 year horizons, communicating performance distributions, spread, and dominant uncertainty drivers rather than single-point forecasts.

Usability & reporting

An accessible interface with interactive dashboards, clear visualisation, and standard reporting, backed by a user manual and technical documentation.

Operational readiness

Scalability, performance, maintainability, security, and deployability within ESA's environment, with documented software reuse and licensing.

The programme follows a requirement-driven review cycle from kick-off to final review. This space tracks milestones and will host findings and updates as the work progresses.

1. Current

   Kick-off

   Requirements consolidation with ESA.

2. Planned

   Requirements Review

   Framework and requirement baseline.

3. Planned

   Design Review

   Architecture and module design.

4. Planned

   Final Review

   Validated tool and handover.